Will We Flood?

According to the NOAA, yes.

The black data points represent a "conditional" prediction, given current conditions, precip forecast, snow melt levels, etc.

Flood stage is 780.00 and the graph indicates a 75% probability of reaching that level.

To reach last spring's flood level of 780.58 this spring - about a 40% probability; To reach last fall's flood level of 780.46 this spring - about a 50% probability.

What about the June 2004 level of 781.49 - about a 12% probability.

Historically, we have a 3% probability of reaching that same lake level. So this spring, we are 4x more likely to reach the June 2004 lake level - although, as of today, it is not a good bet.

Understanding this GRAPH



The blue data marks are what the lake levels of done historically. Clearly, we are running above the historical levels, given the record amount of rain from last fall and the record amount of snow from this winter.